Listings tell you what someone is willing to sell for. True Value tells you what the market has actually been paying. We compute it for every edition on NBA Top Shot, so you can judge a floor price, a bid, or your own collection against a number grounded in real trades.

The guiding principle is simple: value each thing by its own sales. We never average a cheap print together with a rare one to manufacture a single blended figure. Every number also carries a confidence rating so you always know how much trading history is behind it.

A single play can be minted as a standard print and as one or more premium parallels (think of the scarcer, visually distinct versions of the same highlight). These are completely different items with completely different markets.

So we compute True Value per parallel. A standard print is valued only from standard-print sales; a premium parallel is valued only from that parallel's sales. We never blend a weighted average across parallels — doing so would drag a rare parallel down toward the common one, or vice versa.

Whenever an edition has enough of its own trading history, True Value is anchored directly to those sales. We summarize a parallel's recent real sales, lean on the most recent trades, and de-emphasize one-off outliers so a single odd sale can't swing the number. When an edition is too thin or has never traded, we fall back through progressively broader signals — so every edition gets a number instead of a dash.

Two editions can show the same True Value while resting on very different amounts of evidence. We surface that with a confidence rating — the same badge you'll see on moment pages across the site. The more real, recent sales behind a number, the higher its confidence.

When we estimate from comparable editions, scarcity matters as much as the play or set. We bucket editions by their total mint size into four bands, so a 1/1 is only ever compared against other ultra-rare prints — never against a 10,000-mint common.